B L U E  E C O N O M Y  2025 - 2030

ABOUT - CLIMATE - HYDROGEN - OCEAN PLASTIC - WHALING

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HANDOVER CEREMONY - Alberto Laplaine Guimarães is presented with a gift of maritime art from the children of Burgas and Ruska Boyadzhieva. Alberto is the Secretary General of Lisbon City Council and Ruska the Deputy Mayor of Burgas, Bulgaria. Bulgaria reinforced their commitment to blue growth in a ministerial statement to conclude this superb event for which the City of Burgas should be rightly proud. Copyright © photograph June 1 2018 Cleaner Ocean Foundation.

CURRENT TRENDS IN THE BLUE ECONOMY - Sectoral Performance and Key Indicators

Recent assessments (e.g., the EU Blue Economy Report 2025) underscore that the ocean economy is on a divergent trajectory:

Coastal Tourism:

Represents the largest contributor to Gross Value Added (GVA) in the blue economy, contributing roughly 33% of GVA and employing over half the sector’s workforce.

Recovery from pandemic-induced dips has been swift, reaffirming coastal tourism’s centrality to economic activity 2.

Offshore Renewable Energy:

The offshore wind sector has seen exponential growth, with recorded increases of over 1000% in some markets.

In the EU, offshore wind capacity has expanded to nearly 19 gigawatts, powering millions of households and positioning this sector as a linchpin in the transition toward climate neutrality.

Maritime Transport:

Serving as a backbone for global trade, maritime transport handles hundreds of millions of passengers annually and continues to be indispensable for both imports and exports across major oceans.

Traditional Fisheries and Aquaculture:

Despite being a critical source of nutrition, many fish stocks are in decline due to overfishing, ocean warming, and acidification challenges.

The table below captures some key performance indicators across these sectors:

Sector Key Metric Observations

Coastal Tourism ~33% of Blue Economy GVA Rapid pandemic recovery; drives employment (54% of workforce)
Offshore Wind Energy +1000% growth in selected markets Achieved nearly 19 GW capacity in the EU; climate positive
Maritime Transport 368 million passengers (EU ports, 2023) Essential for global trade and logistics
Traditional Fisheries Declining fish stocks Increased stress from environmental change and overfishing
Data derived from the EU Blue Economy Report 2025 and other European Commission insights 2.

SECTOR OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS

Fisheries, Aquaculture, and Seafood

Challenges:

Warming seas, overfishing, and acidification are fundamentally altering marine ecosystems.

Seafood’s role as a staple food is under threat by environmental degradation, demanding innovative approaches to sustainable aquaculture and resource management.

Opportunities:

Advances in sustainable aquaculture and better regulatory frameworks can help stabilize fish stocks while continuing to meet global nutritional needs.

Coastal Tourism and Recreation

Strengths:

Coastal and river cruises, as well as island hopping (e.g., the Caribbean), remain among the world’s most popular leisure activities.

Post-pandemic demand has reignited interest and investment in tourism infrastructure, which now increasingly emphasizes eco-sensitive practices.

Challenges:

The environmental impact of increasing tourist volumes requires careful management to ensure the resilience of coastal ecosystems.

OFFSHORE RENEWABLE ENERGY

Growth Story:

Offshore wind energy is at the forefront of the blue economy transformation.

Significant financial infusions and technology deployment, such as the EU’s deployment that now powers over 6 million households, highlight both its economic and environmental promise.

Innovation and Investment:

High investments, innovative pilot projects, and supportive policy frameworks are driving the sector forward, making it one of the fastest-growing industries in the region.

MARITIME TRANSPORT

Economic Importance:

Vital for the global movement of goods, maritime transport is not only a facilitator for international trade but also a major employer and economic driver across coastal regions.

Environmental Concerns:

Meeting environmental standards while maintaining competitiveness is a central challenge. Reducing emissions and improving maritime efficiency necessitates further innovation and regulatory alignment.

Sustainability Challenges and Policy Implications

The juxtaposition of rapid economic expansion in select blue economy sectors with the environmental vulnerabilities of traditional industries underlines the urgent need for a balanced and integrated policy approach:

Overexploitation vs. Innovation: The decline in fish stocks juxtaposed with the rapid growth of renewable energy reflects a broader tension between unsustainable practices and emerging sustainable technologies.

Environmental Regulations and Market Incentives: To mediate these tensions, policymakers must establish stronger environmental safeguards—ensuring that growth in coastal tourism and maritime transport does not compromise marine ecosystems. Effective regulations paired with market-based incentives can encourage industries to adopt nature-positive practices.

Investment in Scientific Research and Technology: More resources are needed to develop innovative monitoring, restoration, and aquaculture techniques that can cushion the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity and resource availability.

Cross-Border Collaboration: Given that the ocean is a shared resource, regional and international cooperation is essential. Initiatives such as the European Green Deal incorporate blue economy priorities into broader strategic policies, creating economic opportunities while advancing environmental stewardship 2.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Strengthen Sustainable Management of Fisheries and Aquaculture:

- Implement science-based fishing quotas and invest in sustainable aquaculture research.

- Promote certification systems that support environmentally friendly practices.

Scale Up Investment in Renewable Marine Energy:

- Continue the push toward offshore wind energy and explore emerging technologies (like tidal and wave energy) that further reduce carbon footprints.

- Leverage public–private partnerships to enhance innovation and infrastructure investments.

Enhance Environmental Resilience in Tourism and Transport:

- Encourage eco-friendly tourism practices through targeted policy incentives and infrastructure investments.

- Establish stricter environmental standards for maritime transport to reduce emissions and habitat degradation.

Drive Cross-Sector Collaboration:

- Facilitate platforms for dialogue among stakeholders from fisheries, renewable energy, tourism, and transport sectors.

- Promote integrated coastal zone management that balances economic use with ecosystem preservation.

Research and Monitoring:

- Fund multidisciplinary research to better understand the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems.

- Adopt cutting-edge technologies (e.g., satellite monitoring) to provide real-time data on ocean health.

CONCLUSION

In 2025, the Blue Economy stands at a crossroads. While sectors such as coastal tourism and offshore renewable energy showcase the promise of sustainable growth and innovation, traditional industries like fisheries grapple with serious ecological challenges. The divergence between burgeoning sectors and those in distress calls for a holistic policy framework that bridges economic opportunity with environmental stewardship. By investing in innovation, enforcing effective regulations, and fostering collaborative governance, stakeholders can ensure that the Blue Economy remains a source of prosperity and resilience for future generations.

FURTHER AREAS FOR EXPLORATION

Integrated Coastal Zone Management: Detailed case studies on regions that have successfully balanced economic growth with sustainable ecosystem management.

Technological Disruptions in Maritime Transport: Exploring emerging technologies such as autonomous shipping and green retrofitting of vessels.

Global Case Comparisons: Comparative analysis of blue economy policies across key regions (e.g., the EU, Caribbean, Asia-Pacific) to inform best practices in sustainability.

This draft serves as a starting point for dialogue among policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers who are vested in creating a future where the wealth of the seas contributes to a thriving, sustainable global economy.

HOW MUCH IS THE BLUE ECONOMY WORTH?

Current Figures: A Snapshot of 2022–2023

Recent evaluations (notably the EU Blue Economy Report 2025) provide an illuminating snapshot of the blue economy in Europe:

Overall Scale: In 2022, the EU blue economy directly generated a Gross Value Added (GVA) of approximately €250–€260 billion and achieved a total turnover nearing €890 billion. These figures encapsulate everything from traditional fisheries to high-growth renewable sectors 2.

Coastal Tourism: Accounting for roughly 33% of the total GVA, coastal tourism represents the largest single contributor. This translates to an estimated €83 billion in GVA in 2022. Coastal destinations—whether for ocean cruises, seaside resorts, or river excursions—have been resilient and rebound rapidly from shocks like the pandemic.

Offshore Renewable Energy: The offshore wind energy sector, one of the blue economy’s rising stars, recorded a GVA of around €5.3 billion in 2022. Notably, investments reached approximately €48.5 billion that year, underlining the transformative infusion of capital and rapid scaling of projects across Europe.

Maritime Transport: While an exact breakdown for maritime transport is less directly reported, sectoral trends imply that, given its foundational role in global trade and near-doubling in growth over recent years, a rough estimate might suggest that maritime transport contributes on the order of €50 billion or more to the overall GVA. This sector encompasses shipping, port activities, and shipbuilding/repair.

Fisheries, Aquaculture, and Marine Living Resources: Although critical for nutrition and cultural heritage, traditional fisheries have been under pressure from environmental change. They may represent a smaller slice of the blue economy in monetary terms—possibly on the order of €10–€25 billion in GVA. Such figures are sensitive to management practices and ecosystem health, hence the strong emphasis on sustainable reform.

A simplified table summarizing these current figures might look like:

Sector 2022 Estimated GVA (€ Billion)
Coastal Tourism ~83 ~33% share of total EU blue economy GVA
Offshore Renewable Energy ~5.3 Rapid growth; significant capital investment noted
Maritime Transport ~50 (rough estimate) Essential for trade; estimate based on sector growth trends
Fisheries & Aquaculture 10–25 Facing challenges from climate change, overfishing, and sustainability reforms
These figures reflect aggregated data and should be regarded as illustrative approximations drawn from the EU Blue Economy Report and associated briefing materials. 2

FUTURE FORECAST: PROJECTIONS TOWARD 2030

Looking forward, assuming continued technological advancement, supportive policy frameworks (such as those underpinning the European Green Deal), and sustained demand across sectors, the evolution might be roughly outlined as follows:

Overall Blue Economy Growth: If the GVA were to grow gradually at an annual rate of 2–3%—reflecting a mix of mature industries and the emergence of new sectors—the overall figure could well exceed €300 billion by 2030. This forecast assumes that economic recovery trends persist while markets adapt to environmental constraints.

Coastal Tourism: Maintaining its dominant share, coastal tourism could increase proportionally, reaching perhaps €95–€100 billion in GVA if total blue economy activity expands along similar lines, especially if post-pandemic enthusiasm and sustainable tourism practices continue to evolve.

Offshore Renewable Energy: Building on its exponential growth, offshore wind (and emerging tidal and wave energy solutions) might double its GVA impact, potentially rising to around €10 billion by 2030. In tandem, cumulative investments over the decade could exceed €100 billion, reinforcing this sector as a critical pillar of the energy transition.

Maritime Transport: With the deepening integration of greener technologies (such as low-emission fuels and digital optimization), maritime transport could see more accelerated growth. A moderate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5–7% might push its contribution to the blue economy toward €70–€80 billion, reflecting both increased trade volumes and enhanced operational efficiencies.

Fisheries & Aquaculture: These sectors are more subject to environmental variability and regulatory impacts. While traditional wild-catch fisheries might face continued challenges unless bolstered by sustainable practices, investments in innovative aquaculture could help the overall sector stabilize or achieve modest growth. A combined GVA in the range of €15–€30 billion by 2030 is conceivable, with a potential shift toward more sustainable and resilient practices.

It is important to stress that these projections—while inspired by past trends and existing published figures—are subject to considerable uncertainty. Rapid technological change, geopolitical factors, and global market conditions (including shifts in consumer tastes and policy responses) could all significantly influence these outcomes.

CONTEXTUAL CONSIDERATIONS AND BROADER IMPLICATIONS

Divergent Sector Dynamics: While traditional sectors like fisheries may face headwinds from depleting stocks and climate stressors, new sectors like offshore renewable energy illustrate a paradigm shift in how coastal regions engage with marine resources. The interplay between these divergent trends calls for policies that do not just support economic growth but also ensure environmental resilience.

Investment and Innovation: The scale of current investments—especially in renewable energy—suggests that future GVA figures in these sectors may be driven more by technological adoption and integrated innovation platforms. Public–private partnerships will be central to ensuring that both the environmental and economic efficiencies are maximized.

Regional Variability: Although our estimates draw mainly from EU-centric data, global variations are substantial. Regions with expansive coastlines and emerging markets in aquaculture or tourism (such as parts of Asia, the Caribbean, and Africa) may experience different growth trajectories, underscoring the need for localized studies in tandem with global assessments.

Sustainability Risks: Linking monetary value with environmental capacity also means accounting for ecological tipping points. Investments in sectors that burden coastal ecosystems without due regard for regeneration could undermine long-term value. Thus, sustainability metrics will become as crucial as economic ones in future blue economy assessments.

CONCLUSION

While the monetary valuation of the blue economy is nuanced—mirroring the diversity and complexity of its constituent sectors—a rough assessment suggests that by 2022 the EU’s blue economy contributed around €250–€260 billion in GVA, with coastal tourism and maritime transport playing key roles alongside rapidly expanding renewable energy. Conservative forecasts indicate that, with supportive policies and continual innovation, these figures could rise to over €300 billion by 2030, although the distribution across sectors will depend heavily on technological breakthroughs, sustainability reforms, and adaptive market dynamics.

This monetary snapshot not only highlights the blue economy’s current economic significance but also sets the stage for broader debates on how best to balance growth with ecological stewardship. Future dialogue might delve into specific policy mechanisms for supporting sustainable aquaculture, the role of digital innovation in maritime logistics, or comparative analyses between regional blue economy strategies worldwide.

UNEP REPORT OCTOBER 2021 - Plastic pollution in our oceans is set to double by 2030, with recycling not enough (we told you so) and global cooperation needed (we told you so again). Don't let the politician spin doctors protract enacting a solution any longer. If shoppers were to boycott plastic wrapped products, apart from the fact they may starve, supermarket suppliers would be forced to switch to paper, glass and metal packaging - or face bankruptcy. The fact politicians allow them to continue as they are tells us that it is the policy makers who are to blame. And, they like it as it is, lots of money for them, backhanders (dividends) or not, taxes as income from plastic products is akin to procurement fraud - for any government involved.

ENEMY OF BLUE GROWTH

At the moment the common enemies of blue growth are: 1. Marine Plastic Pollution, 2. Climate Change, 2. Over or Pirate Fishing. These issues affect tourism and marine transport from fuel-burning pollution.

#HORIZON EU MISSIONS 2030

MAIN BLOCKERS

We are facing four major problems that seriously hinder blue growth:

 1.  Ocean Pollution - poisons wild fish, also the source of feed for aquaculture

 2.  Over Fishing - depletes wild fish stocks, threatening food security & productive fisheries

 3.  Climate Change - ocean acidification & fish migration

 4.  Over Population - demands more fish than the oceans can at present provide

MAIN GROWTH AREAS

 5.  Ocean Regeneration - cleaning our oceans to preserve the resource and cleanse the toxic food chain

 6.  Aquaculture - now generates around 50% of world produce, mostly subject to wild fish feed

 7.  Ocean Energy - offshore wind and wave energy for clean power

 8.  Biotechnology - Identifying, harvesting and producing medicines

 9.  Coastal Tourism - To engage the public in ocean matters and reduce air travel

10. Green Ships - Cargo and cruise ships that are cleaner, preferably zero carbon

11. Green Ports - Ports and docks that are more efficient at handling passengers and cargo

1. OCEAN POLLUTION

By loading up the oceans with plastics, oil and other pollutants we are harming the marine life that we rely on for food, where food security is vital to stability and there are more mouths to feed every day from diminishing agricultural and aqua-cultural resources.

Is it possible to clean the (global) ocean up?

At the moment deep sea trash deposits look as if they a there to stay, but there is hope that vehicles like SeaVax™ can make an impact on surface litter and gyre soups and so significantly slow deep sea deposits. At the moment this is just a dream for the team at the Cleaner Ocean Foundation, but with suitable funding to construct a prototype SeaVax™ the Foundation would be prepared to put theory into practice - and have already begun planning to build in the hope that support for this valuable research is forthcoming as part of the UN's Agenda 2030 sustainability drive.

There are 5 swirling ocean garbage patches called gyres. The largest gyre is the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, located between Hawaii and California, held to be about the size of France at the moment.

2. OVER FISHING

In an effort to feed the growing population we are plundering the ocean depths with giant trawler nets causing serious damage to ocean ecology and wild fish stocks. We must regulate industrial scale fishing by imposing serious financial penalties and boat confiscations if that is the only way to prevent unauthorized catches. Diesel subsidies for large trawlers should be banned and fines imposed for damage to the seabed.

Fisheries scientist Daniel Pauly and economist Ussif Rashid Sumaila have examined subsidies paid to bottom trawl fleets around the world. They found that US$152 million per year are paid to deep-sea fisheries. Without these subsidies, global deep-sea fisheries would operate at a loss of $50 million a year. A great deal of the subsidies paid to deep-sea trawlers is to subsidize the large amount of fuel required to travel beyond the 200-mile limit and drag weighted nets.

"There is surely a better way for governments to spend money than by paying subsidies to a fleet that burns 1.1 billion litres of fuel annually to maintain paltry catches of old growth fish from highly vulnerable stocks, while destroying their habitat in the process" – Pauly.

"Eliminating global subsidies would render these fleets economically unviable and would relieve tremendous pressure on over-fishing and vulnerable deep-sea ecosystems" – Sumaila.

The logical conclusion is that diesel fuel subsidies are counter to blue growth and fishery regeneration.

Is it possible to prevent over fishing?

It is almost impossible to prevent illegal catches even with the rules for offshore fisherman and the quota system, and shore catch limits for anglers. Trawlers present a huge problem and by-catch, but with persistent monitoring, a reduction in harmful subsidies and improved technology, progress can be made.

Source: Report of the Secretary-General, "Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals", E/2017/66

3. CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is affecting the chemistry of our oceans, melting the ice caps and potentially placing the whole planet in a crisis 'burn out' situation with a sulfur build up that is reducing reflection of solar radiation creating a feedback loop that warms the earth more. We simply must change our energy usage patterns to do all we can to reduce harmful emissions. 

What we need is greener vehicles for both land and sea transport. We also need green energy for our factories and homes, where air conditioning to cool houses and shops consumes large amounts of energy that should be offset with micro and macro generation schemes.

4. OVER POPULATION

There is not much anyone can do to prevent population increases where humans are biologically programmed to procreate, other than offer educational support and contraception advice or even free contraceptives, where 'Human Rights' freedoms take precedence. That is why points 1-3 are so very important. In effect, we need to recondition the planet to allow for human expansion in circular economy fashion in the hope of achieving population equilibrium that does not displace other life on earth or lead to World War Three annihilation; hence the militaristic term: Food Security.

LINKS & REFERENCE

[1] https://blue-economy-observatory.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-blue-economy-report-2025-2025-05-22_en
[2] https://oceans-and-fisheries.ec.europa.eu/news/commission-publishes-2025-report-eu-blue-economy-2025-05-22_en
[3] https://op.europa.eu/webpub/mare/eu-blue-economy-report-2025/

https://blue-economy-observatory.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-blue-economy-report-2025-2025-05-22_en
https://oceans-and-fisheries.ec.europa.eu/news/commission-publishes-2025-report-eu-blue-economy-2025-05-22_en
https://op.europa.eu/webpub/mare/eu-blue-economy-report-2025/

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